Published: April 10, 2008 08:56 am         

Weather Watch

By MARK HANOK

In last week’s column, written Wednesday morning, we predicted beautiful weather from Sunday through most of the week. However, last weekend, local weather forecasts were calling for at least mostly cloudy skies and showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

In fact, forecasts even as late as Tuesday morning were pointing to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday. The problem is that most meteorologists forecasting for our area failed to recognize the obvious correlation between a “reverse temperature anomaly,” severe weather in Texas, and sunny, mild weather in Otsego County. Yet time and time again, especially in the early spring, we get into these patterns where a sea breeze ensures that it’s much cooler in the New York City area than in western, central, and northern New York. When at the same time tornadoes rip through central Texas, all bets are off for cloudy forecasts, and it’s virtually a certainty that beautiful April weather will continue all day. That’s exactly what occurred on Tuesday.

During the upcoming week, most local weather forecasts will continue to overestimate cloud cover and precipitation. Although it may appear that three rainy days are on the way — Friday, Saturday, and Sunday — actually Saturday may be the only rainy day.

On Friday, computer models will show that a major storm system in the upper Midwest will move far enough east to bring cloudy skies and showers. But a blocking weather pattern will continue to slow the movement of weather systems, as the storm will be blocked by a persistent area of high pressure east of the Canadian Maritimes. The result will be partly sunny skies Friday morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon, and showers won’t arrive until late afternoon or evening. Highs will be around 60 degrees.

The low will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday, and we’ll get occasional showers and highs from 52 to 57 degrees. Cold air wrapping around the storm could bring several inches of snow from Minnesota to upper Michigan.

The storm will move to the St. Lawrence Valley on Sunday, and a northwest flow of cooler air will take over. Showers early in the morning will give way to partly sunny skies by afternoon, and highs around 50 degrees. As northwesterly winds bring colder air, we could get a few snow showers Sunday night and Monday morning, then partly sunny, windy and cool on Monday afternoon, with highs only in the mid-40s.

On Tuesday, except for a few snow showers in the morning, skies will be partly sunny, with highs from 45 to 50 degrees.

With a zonal west-to-east flow, a very dry weather pattern will take over from coast to coast, and sunny to partly sunny skies will prevail each day through at least Friday of next week, with a gradual warming trend.

Mark Hanok is an Otegobased meteorologist. You can visit him on the World Wide Web at http://members. aol.com/weathergazette.