Published: May 15, 2008 12:10 pm         

Weather Watch

By MARK HANOK

Once again, the combination of an upside-down temperature pattern, a southern storm track, and severe weather from Texas to the Carolinas, proved to be a very reliable indicator for a continuation of exceptionally dry weather in Otsego County. The longer this weather pattern continues, the drier it will get in our area, and it looks like water levels in the Susquehanna River will be unusually low for the General Clinton Canoe Regatta on Memorial Day weekend.

During the first half of May, we got only about half an inch of rain in our region, and that’s less than a third of normal. The problem is that all the action continues to stay be well to the west and south, with one high pressure area after another, across eastern Canada and New England. There will be some changes in the weather pattern during the upcoming week, with more cloudiness and cooler air as a northwest flow takes over at the surface and aloft, but we’ll get very little in the way of rainfall. On Friday, the familiar, recurring pattern of a storm in the mid-Atlantic states will bring another “reverse temperature anomaly,” with a steady rain from southeast Pennsylvania to the New York City area on Friday, but we’ll get only occasional light showers. Highs will be around 60 degrees.

As a large upper-level trough becomes established over the eastern Great Lakes eastward to Quebec, look for intervals of clouds and sunshine and a northwesterly breeze, with highs only 55 to 60 degrees on Saturday. With variable cloudiness and breaks of sunshine on Sunday, there’s the chance of a few showers, with highs just in the mid-50s.

The cool weather will continue early next week, with partly sunny skies on Monday, and highs around 60 degrees. A low pressure trough may bring a few showers on Monday night and early Tuesday, then skies will be partly sunny in the afternoon, with highs from 60 to 65 degrees.

As low pressure pulled eastward to the mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, rain advanced to Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, central Virginia, and western North Carolina. There was a tornado in Tupelo, Miss. in the morning, and severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes ripped across north-central North Carolina in the evening.

A cold front brought light rain to the Cooperstown area early in the morning, then a northwest flow took over, around a storm system in central Quebec. Even though forecasts called for mostly cloudy skies, it was a beautiful afternoon.

Because Friday was yet another day of severe weather from north Texas across southern Great Plains, it wasn’t surprising that most of the rain missed Otsego County, as a large high over James Bay maintained a northerly flow of cold, dry air, and skies were sunny all day in northern New York. There was supposed to be a steady rain all day in our area, but it was mainly a mid-day event, with a few hours of very light to light rain through early afternoon. A clearing line moved through central New York from the northwest by late afternoon, and skies were mostly clear by sunset. Local weather forecasts called for mostly cloudy skies in the Western Catskills and the Cooperstown area on Saturday, but all bets were off for clouds to stick around very long. That’s because it was another day of wild weather — this time severe thunderstorms concentrated in Arkansas and Missouri, ahead of low pressure in Oklahoma. South of the storm, temperatures soared to over 100 degrees in central Texas. In our region, there were intervals of clouds and sunshine and highs in the low 60s.

On Sunday, it was as if the atmosphere was saying, “North is a synonym for sunshine!” This was an important message, reflecting the fact that the atmosphere was reverting to the all-too-familiar upside-down temperature pattern virtually guaranteed to bring the most rainfall to points further south, and the sunniest weather in far northern New York.

Delightful weather continued in the Cooperstown area, with sunny skies all morning. As a layer of high cirrostratus clouds moved across the sky, there was a high overcast during the early afternoon, but the clouds quickly broke up and thinned out, giving way to partial sunshine. This was an indication of strong northwest winds aloft. Although a rainy day was predicted, the combination of the “reverse temperature anomaly,” and severe weather in the Southeast, ensured a continuation of the very dry weather pattern through the week. Since a major coastal storm moved eastward from the Virginia coast and out to sea on Monday, an easterly flow around the low resulted in another upside-down temperature pattern and north became a synonym for sunshine. Although skies were mostly cloudy in Otsego County, the weather was much better than earlier forecasts had indicated. A large high centered over northern Quebec prevented any moisture from moving northward, and the air was so dry that dim sunshine through a high overcast in the late morning became brighter during the afternoon.

On Wednesday , it was certainly no coincidence that ideal May weather continued in Otsego County, with brilliant sunshine and sapphireblue skies all day, with very dry air and highs in the mid- 70s.

Mark Hanok is an Otego based meteorologist. You can visit him on the World Wide Web at http://members. aol.com/weathergazette.