By MARK HANOK
It was nice to get a break from the very warm and humid weather during the past week, with a series of upperlevel low pressure systems and a northwesterly flow aloft. Exactly as we predicted, beautiful weather prevailed all weekend, as all the rain occurred at night and early in the morning.
During the upcoming week, we’ll go back to a warmer and more humid weather pattern, and more unsettled, as a series of low pressure systems continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day from Saturday through early next week.
On Friday, a light northwest flow will take over, around a weak area of high pressure, and skies will be partly to mostly sunny with moderate levels of humidity, and highs in the mid-80s.
On Saturday, skies will be partly sunny with more humid air, and highs in the lower 80s; there’s the chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon or evening, as a warm front approaches from the south and west. On Sunday, we’ll get variable cloudiness with intervals of sunshine, but thunderstorms will become more numerous in the afternoon and evening as the warm front moves through our area; highs will be from 77 to 82 degrees.
Skies will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy on Monday, warm and humid with highs in the low 80s; once again showers and thunderstorms will be around in the afternoon and evening.
As a weak cold front slides to the south on Tuesday, the most likely time for thunderstorms is during the morning;
otherwise there will be partly sunny skies and highs around 80 degrees.
Delightfully cool weather continued in the Cooperstown area on Thursday, as a large upper-level trough lifted slowly northward to James Bay, and high pressure moved eastward to the Ohio Valley. A light westerly flow prevailed, with partly sunny to occasionally mostly cloudy skies, and highs in the middle 60s and dew points in the upper 40s. Thunderstorms were scattered around New York State during the late afternoon after a thunderstorm at our weather station in Otego, temperatures dropped to the low 60s.
For the first day of summer, the weather was spectacular in the Western Catskills and the Cooperstown area, as high pressure drifted east of New England and a weak cold front moved eastward to Michigan. Skies were mostly sunny through early afternoon in the Western Catskills, with highs in the upper 70s and dew points in the mid-50s. During the late afternoon skies were mostly cloudy, as a band of heavy thunderstorms slid just to the south across northern Pennsylvania, while another cluster of thunderstorms moved into northwest Pennsylvania and New York’s western Southern Tier.
Most local weather forecasts called for a cloudy Sunday in the Western Catskills, with occasional showers and heavy thunderstorms, but the heat wave in the northern Rockies ensured that any rain would be at nighttime and early morning event and that bright sunshine would return on Sunday.
On Monday, showers and thunderstorms were entirely a nighttime event. A weak cold front moved through our area during the middle of the night, bringing occasional thunderstorms, ending right after sunrise. Computer models had indicated that an upper-level trough would stay in place over northern New York and continue the showers and thunderstorms, but the low shifted eastward and a drier westerly flow took over. It was just another beautiful day in Otsego County, with mostly sunny skies, fairly low humidity and highs in the upper 70s. As the large upper-level trough lifted northward to the St. Lawrence Valley on Tuesday, cold air moved in aloft, while there was strong heating at the surface, and this led to considerable instability in the atmosphere.
At the same time, drier air moved in, with northwest winds aloft, and along with a picturesque array of cumulus and altocumulus clouds, there were intervals of bright sunshine, and a few brief showers; highs were around 70 degrees.
Mark Hanok is an Otego based meteorologist. You can visit him on the World Wide Web at http://members. aol.com/weathergazette.
By MARK HANOK
- Weather Watch
- Weather watch The Susquehanna River level will be unusually low for the General Clinton Canoe Regatta during Memorial Day weekend.
- Weather Watch It’s really uncanny how the very dry weather pattern has continued in this area despite the succession of major storms that have moved to the west and south.
- Weather Watch Now that north has become a synonym for sunshine and south has become a synonym for rain, there’s no way that this extremely dry weather pattern can change at least for the next four weeks.
- Weather Watch March was the third straight month with below normal precipitation, and it looks like April will also turn out to be drier than normal.
- Weather Watch Temperatures were near normal in March, with precipitation around an inch below normal.
- Weather Watch On Friday a major storm will move to the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds southward from eastern Canada. Skies will be partly sunny with highs from 55 to 60 degrees.
- Weather Watch When it’s warmer to the north and cooler to the south, it’s so easy to get into an extremely dry weather pattern in Otsego County. The weather forecast in last week’s weather column was more optimistic than other local weather forecasts, but the weather was actually much better than even we predicted.
- Weather Watch The jet stream will shift southward this week and a series of low pressure systems will move well to our south.
- Weather Watch Exactly as we predicted at the beginning of the month, it was one of the driest Februaries on record in Otsego County and throughout most of central and eastern New York. Thanks to the extreme upside-down temperature pattern with much warmer weather in Montana than in Georgia, and strong winds on Monday and Tuesday, an extremely dry weather pattern will be the theme for at least the next two to three weeks.
- Weather Watch Exactly as we’ve been predicting for the past month, this is turning out to be an exceptionally dry February - one of the driest on record in central and eastern New York.
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