By MARK HANOK
It’s really uncanny how the very dry weather pattern has continued in this area despite the succession of major storms that have moved to the west and south.
When will meteorologists who forecast the weather in this area finally learn that there really is a correlation between upside-down temperature patterns, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in Texas and the Deep South, and dry weather in the Cooperstown area and the Western Catskills?
When the weather pattern is very unusual and there’s a major storm not far to the west, the weather is usually better than predicted in our area.
Most meteorologists consistently underestimate the dry air associated with deep upper-level lows over the Great Lakes, and the dry slot that punches well to the east of these major storm systems. Although most residents of this area may be convinced that it’s been a cool April, this is an excellent example of how the perception can be very different from the actual weather.
In fact, temperatures in Otsego County have averaged about a degree above normal.
Even after the rain on Monday night and Tuesday evening, precipitation is still less than half of normal in Otsego County, and there’s no significant rain in sight through all of next week.
It looks like April will turn out to be the fourth consecutive month with below normal precipitation. The next week will represent a change in the weather pattern, we’ll go from very dry to extremely dry, and temperatures will average 10 to 20 degrees above normal.
We’ll get a preview of summer this weekend and early next week, as a large area of high pressure becomes well-established over the southeastern states and we get a west to southwest flow of very warm air.
On Friday skies will be mostly sunny with a northwest breeze and highs from 65 to 70 degrees, and relative humidity levels below 20%. Saturday and Sunday will feature bright sunshine and highs in the low 80s, with desert-dry air.
As a weak cold front brings only a few passing clouds, a northwesterly flow will take over on Monday and Tuesday but temperatures will continue well above normal; with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Highs will be in the mid-70s. .
Mark Hanok is an Otegobased meteorologist.
By MARK HANOK
- Weather Watch
- Weather watch The Susquehanna River level will be unusually low for the General Clinton Canoe Regatta during Memorial Day weekend.
- Weather Watch It’s really uncanny how the very dry weather pattern has continued in this area despite the succession of major storms that have moved to the west and south.
- Weather Watch Now that north has become a synonym for sunshine and south has become a synonym for rain, there’s no way that this extremely dry weather pattern can change at least for the next four weeks.
- Weather Watch March was the third straight month with below normal precipitation, and it looks like April will also turn out to be drier than normal.
- Weather Watch Temperatures were near normal in March, with precipitation around an inch below normal.
- Weather Watch On Friday a major storm will move to the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds southward from eastern Canada. Skies will be partly sunny with highs from 55 to 60 degrees.
- Weather Watch When it’s warmer to the north and cooler to the south, it’s so easy to get into an extremely dry weather pattern in Otsego County. The weather forecast in last week’s weather column was more optimistic than other local weather forecasts, but the weather was actually much better than even we predicted.
- Weather Watch The jet stream will shift southward this week and a series of low pressure systems will move well to our south.
- Weather Watch Exactly as we predicted at the beginning of the month, it was one of the driest Februaries on record in Otsego County and throughout most of central and eastern New York. Thanks to the extreme upside-down temperature pattern with much warmer weather in Montana than in Georgia, and strong winds on Monday and Tuesday, an extremely dry weather pattern will be the theme for at least the next two to three weeks.
- Weather Watch Exactly as we’ve been predicting for the past month, this is turning out to be an exceptionally dry February - one of the driest on record in central and eastern New York.
- More Weather Watch Headlines